Silk Road Reporters

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March, Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including on its financial and energy sectors, as well as on a number of Russian nationals in President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. In response, on Aug. 6 Putin imposed year-long food bans on the United States, European Union member states, Australia, Canada and Norway. Russia has also banned the transit of agricultural goods from Belarus and Kazakhstan following its embargo on EU food imports.

From the $43 billion of agricultural products Russia purchased abroad in 2013, $25 billion are now banned. According to Russian statistics, imports accounted for about 40 percent of household spending on food.

For the older Russian consumers this echoes memories of empty Soviet supermarkets, while the ban will likely spur inflation, currently hovering at about 7 percent this year.

Silk Road Reporters.

Central Asia’s Hydropower Spat | The Diplomat

Uzbekistan continues its quest to choke its two poorer neighbors’ plans to attain and secure energy independence. During an official visit to Kazakhstan late November, Uzbek President Islam Karimov made sure to bring up the “dangers” the hydropower plants Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan want to build could pose. According to Karimov, the plans are “not coordinated with countries downstream,” i.e. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Flanked by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Karimov said, “We have affirmed our common position regarding the construction of new hydro technical facilities upstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya Rivers, which must strictly conform to recognized norms of international law and UN conventions as well as mandatory coordination with all countries located in the lower reaches of these rivers.”

Karimov conveniently forgets his administration bills Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for natural gas exports. Moreover, said gas is frequently shut off as a means of coercing the two countries, which are planning to build power-generating facilities on Central Asia’s two largest rivers. For instance, Kyrgyzstan has been struggling with not just a shortage but an absence of Uzbek gas, for most of 2014. Because mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sit high above sea level, harsh winters create shortages of already scarce electricity, and any insufficiency of Uzbek gas only makes the two countries more anxious to secure energy independence.

From Russia With Love?

Despite Tashkent’s tactics, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which together own nearly 70 percent of the waters that flow into the dwindling Aral Sea, remain deaf to Uzbekistan’s demands and warnings of “water wars.” This is thanks in part to Russia. The Kremlin has not only been voicing its support for plans to revive the Soviet-era projects, it has actually invested millions of dollars in the idea. Russian President Vladimir Putin personally travelled to Bishkek and Dushanbe, the two regional hosts of Russian military bases, to sign bilateral agreements to that effect. On top of Russia’s support, Tajikistan secured the World Bank’s “green light” for what is expected to be the tallest dam in the world: Rogun at 335 meters. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan was actually able to launch parts of a cascade of Russia-funded hydropower stations.

If giving money and throwing political support behind Kyrgyz and Tajik energy initiatives is the Kremlin’s carrot, the stick it may wish to use can hit both sides of the conflict. Toughening conditions for millions of Kyrgyz, Tajik and Uzbek migrant laborers in Russia, thereby indirectly forcing them to return to their homelands, is a tool Moscow has used frequently in the past. And this time around these migrants could thwart Uzbekistan’s attempts to prevent Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan from building dams. The sanctions the West slapped on Russia for Crimea and Ukraine have obvious implications for millions of Central Asians seeking work in Russia. On top of this, a report the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released in November suggests that falling prices of oil coupled with sanctions will negatively impact the Russian economy next year, sending shockwaves across Central Asia. These factors could lead some migrants to return from Russia, permanently.

The return of even a portion of the migrants to join the growing local populations would put Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan under pressure. Ironically, therefore, both sides of the water conflict equally need it: Uzbekistan needs water to keep tens of thousands of returnees busy on agriculture fields, lest they voice discontent with the government’s inability to employ them, while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan need water to generate electricity to keep their own returning migrants from taking to the streets in protest. No sane Tajik or Kyrgyz politician would back down in the face of such challenges.

Central Asia’s Hydropower Spat | The Diplomat.

Resources: Curb vast water use in central Asia : Nature News & Comment

Shipwrecks rusting in the desert have come to symbolize the environmental havoc that has befallen the Aral Sea, which straddles Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. More than 90% of what was once the fourth-largest lake in the world has vanished in half a century123. The cracked shores are symptoms of the dramatic overuse of water in central Asia. Since the 1960s, 70% of Turkmenistan has become desert, and half of Uzbekistan’s soil has become salty owing to dust blown from the dry bed of the Aral Sea1.

The republics of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan were developed as farming states to supply produce to the former Soviet Union1. Today, they are among the highest per capita users of water in the world — on average, each Turkmen consumes 4 times more water than a US citizen, and 13 times more than a Chinese one4(see ‘Top 20 consumers’). More than 90% of the region’s water use is irrigating thirsty crops including cotton and wheat12.

….

Like most other parts of the former Soviet Union, central Asian states suffer authoritarian rule and political fragility. Soaring unemployment is leading to a mass emigration of educated people. Current figures estimate that up to one-third of working-age Tajiks are employed abroad. Ethnic, political and religious diversity and difficulties with boundary demarcation fuel nationalism. Internal hostilities, as in the Caucasus, Moldova and eastern Ukraine, are a threat. A full-scale regional conflict, regardless of the rise of radical religious groups, is not out of the question.

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Resources: Curb vast water use in central Asia : Nature News & Comment.

Water Resources in Central Asia & Afghanistan » “Khovar” – National Information Agency of Tajikistan

Afghanistan is linked with the Central Asian Republics through trans-boundary water resources and almost 40% of its territory and 33% of its population reside within the Aral Sea Basin.

In terms of regional stability, the problem posed by Afghanistan relates to its use of water carried by the Amu Darya River, which is shared with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and eventually flows into the southern section, or ‘large’ Aral Sea. When, or if, the security situation stabilises in Afghanistan, much of the country’s development will focus on irrigated agriculture which will in turn, mean increased use of the water resources available from the already over-exploited Amu Darya

The increased use of water from the Amu Darya River may have serious consequences for inter-state relations with Central Asian neighbours. Increased agricultural production will obviously require water for irrigation and some experts have told me that post-war Afghanistan could double the amount of water it currently uses. Any cropping that takes place in the northern part of Afghanistan will draw water from the Amu Darya and such a situation will invariably create tension and enhance the risk of conflict with the Amu Darya’s downstream users, who already encounter water availability problems.

Indeed international agencies are endeavouring to encourage Afghan farmers to turn away from growing poppies which fuel the drug trade, to pomegranates. The land in Afghanistan is ideally suited for this purpose but, of course, the pomegranate is a thirsty crop and its wide-scale introduction will require careful handling. Consequently, the international community and development agencies must resist the temptation to assume that Afghanistan’s development needs automatically outweigh those of the Central Asian states.

Tajikistan also has a major role to play in bringing stability to this volatile region. Through the exploitation of its massive water resources, Tajikistan will soon be able to meet all of its own energy requirements while at the same time exporting electricity to its neighbours. A 500 Kv transmission line is already under construction linking Tajikistan and Afghanistan. The provision of electricity to this war-torn state will be a positive contribution towards restoring peace and re-building Afghanistan’s shattered economy.

Of course water issues affecting the upstream and downstream nations in Central Asia are a source of constant tension and the proposed construction of the Rogun reservoir on the Vakhsh River in Tajikistan has become a focus of controversy. When operational, Rogun will produce a massive 3600 MW at peak capacity. Over 45 miles of underground tunnels have already been completed during the Soviet era and 5000 workers are engaged day and night in the construction of giant underground halls where the turbines will be located. It is intended to dam the Vakhsh River in the steep narrow valley in which Rogun is located with a 335 metre high stone and clay embankment.

via Water Resources in Central Asia & Afghanistan » “Khovar” – National Information Agency of Tajikistan.

Rahmon: Tajikistan Does Not Claim Monopoly of Water Resources in Region , 6 April 2012 Friday 16:37

Tajikistan has consistently advocated for the efficient sharing of water resources by all countries in the region of Central Asia, Tajik leader Emomali Rahmon said in an exclusive interview with the influential Al-Masa Egyptian newspaper which is now posted on the official website of the President in the Tajik language, ITAR-TASS reported.

“Tajikistan, where 60 per cent of the water resources are formed does not claim monopoly of them, but stands for co-efficient water use by all countries of the region,” Rahmon emphasised.

He believes “the management of these resources among the upper reaches of Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which have abundant water resources and lower reaches in countries such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan which have rich reserves of oil and natural gas, requires an effective economic mechanism to ensure the long term and mutually beneficial use.”

According to local experts, it’s the “water problem and its potential shortage” that has become one of the main reasons for Tashkent’s tough opposition to erection in Tajikistan of the region’s largest Rogun hydroelectric power station with a design capacity of 3600 MW. However, as preceding statements by Emomali Rahmon and his interview with the Egyptian media show, Tajikistan will not abandon construction of this super energy giant.

“We ask our neighbours to understand the situation in which Tajikistan is lacking large reserves of oil and gas and facing great challenges due to the shortage of electricity and heat in the winter,” says the Tajik leader, pointing out that “the only way is construction of large hydroelectric power stations on our internal rivers.”

Rahmon’s emotional interview comes amid new tensions between the two neighbouring republics. The Tajik side has accused Tashkent of a transport blockade on the southern section of the railway, calling the Uzbek authorities’ explanation on the need for reconstruction of the worn-out ways a “farfetched pretext” and of the refusal of a supply of natural gas from April 1 as well as a simultaneous ban on the transit of Turkmen gas through its territory.

via Rahmon: Tajikistan Does Not Claim Monopoly of Water Resources in Region , 6 April 2012 Friday 16:37.