Category: Resources

Persian games: Iran’s strategic foothold in Tajikistan | openDemocracy

 

While international attention on Iran focuses on the country’s nuclear programme and anti-western rhetoric, few have noticed the country’s constructive attempts to develop a sphere of influence in its fellow Persian-speaking Tajikistan. But as western states ramp up sanctions against Iran, will the overlooked Tajikistan be the one to lose out? asks Brenton Clark

International media attention on Iran focuses on the country’s nuclear programme and its ongoing confrontations with the United States and Israel. Meanwhile a number of developments within Iranian foreign policy have escaped widespread attention, presumably because they do not fit the international community’s alarmist and doom-laden narrative for Iran’s political intentions and foreign policy behaviour. One particularly striking example of this is Iran’s concerted push to develop political, cultural and economic ties with the small and fragile post-Soviet state of Tajikistan.

Although Tajikistan has consistently stood in the geostrategic shadow of its perennially unstable southern neighbour, Afghanistan, and lacks the political and military clout of its fellow post-Soviet Central Asian neighbours, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, it is a state of both regional and global import. Situated at a key crossroad within the Eurasian landmass, Tajikistan has the potential to play a strong role in shaping the economic development and trading opportunities for a number of state and non-state actors within Eurasia. With increased investment into its transport infrastructure, Tajikistan could provide a vital link between East Asia and the Persian Gulf, on the one hand, and between Russia and India, on the other. In effect, it could become an important pivot point in regional and global trade.

Although Tajikistan has the potential to contribute to the economic development to the Central Asian region, it also could act as a key source of instability. Its porous border with Afghanistan makes Tajikistan sensitive to developments brewing in Kabul; over the last two decades Russian and Tajik border guards have intermittently battled Islamist militants emanating from Afghanistan and have fought a losing battle against drug traffickers and smugglers.

via Persian games: Iran’s strategic foothold in Tajikistan | openDemocracy.

EDB experts predicted Tajikistan’s inflation to rise to more than 10%

According to the IMF and other international organizations, GDP growth may slow down to 6% in 2012, while inflation will be about 8%.

Eurasian Development Bank experts have forecasted a rise in Tajikistan’s inflation to more than 10% on an annualized basis, CA-NEWS reports. As of the beginning of 2012, the country’s total amount of foreign debt exceeded 2.1 billion US dollars. The foreign debt to GDP made up 33% in absolute terms. The last year’s economic growth at 7.5% and a relatively moderate inflation reduced the level of foreign debt to GDP. Most of the debts account for China as well as international organizations. Within the context of high prices of basic export commodities, such as aluminum and cotton, as well as continued growth in the economies of trade partners, the Tajik authorities expect this year’s GDP growth at 8% with an increase in

via EDB experts predicted Tajikistan’s inflation to rise to more than 10%.

Tajikistan, ADB discuss a number of regional projects | Tajikistan News-NA «Asia-Plus»

DUSHANBE, April 7, 2012, Asia-Plus  — State and prospects of further expansion of cooperation between Tajikistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) were the focus of a meeting of President Emomali Rahmon with ADB’s Country Director for Tajikistan Joji Tokeshi that took place here on April 6.

President’s official website reports the sides, in particular, considered regional projects on construction of railroads, including a rail link that will connect Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.  They also discussed projects aimed at laying a gas pipeline and constructing a power transmission line.

In the course of the talks, Emomali Rahmon and Joji Tokeshi reportedly underlined the significance of expansion of cooperation.

Tajikistan joined ADB in 1998.  Since that time, ADB has reportedly approved a total of some $860 million in concessional loans, grants and technical assistance to the country.

We will recall that the Asian Development Bank plans a $215.1 million grant program for Tajikistan in 2012-2014 to help develop energy and transport infrastructure and reforms, including renewable energy alternatives, and support private sector development.

ADB assistance for 2012 is expected to be $62 million in grants.  This would be followed by anticipated assistance levels of $84.3 million grant, and $69 million grant in 2013 and 2014, respectively.  However, final amounts will depend on the country’s performance and the availability of ADB funds.

via Tajikistan, ADB discuss a number of regional projects | Tajikistan News-NA «Asia-Plus».

Tajik aluminium output 14pct down – 258148 – 2012-04-08

Business Recorder reported that Tajikistan’s state owned aluminium smelter the largest in Central Asia, reduced output by 14.2% YoY in the Q1 of 2012 to 73,362 tonnes.

A source said that Tajikistan Aluminium Company known as TALCO, plans to produce 332,500 tonnes of primary aluminium this year. It produced 377,584 tonnes in 2011 down 20.4% from the total the year before. Aluminium exports account for more than a half of Tajikistan’s entire export revenues.

Ex Soviet neighbour Uzbekistan, which is the sole natural gas exporter to Tajikistan halted its supplies of the fuel on April 1st 2012 after saying its 3 month contract with Dushanbe had expired and it needed to fill a gas pipeline running to China.

Tajik industry officials said that the move would deal a severe blow to the country’s shaky economy.

A TALCO official said that the company, which underwent a costly overhaul last year could have to shelve its output growth plans if Uzbek gas was not supplied for a long period of time. TALCO’s output grew by 8.9% in March compared to February but fell by 12.0% YoY.

The TALCO source said that despite the absence of gas this month, we still hope to keep up our growth tempo and achieve our target for this year.

via Tajik aluminium output 14pct down – 258148 – 2012-04-08.

Unresolved issues between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan fraught with serious consequences – Trend

Long contradictions between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – Central Asian neighbors in the region are more and more aggravated. Despite the problems in the relations between Tashkent and Dushanbe are not new, today, they can lead to very serious consequences.

Last time the relations have deteriorated due to the suspension of natural gas supplies from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan since April 1, as well as the delay of Tajik goods in Uzbekistan. Moreover, Tashkent denied Dushanbe to transport Turkmen gas through its territory.

According to Dushanbe, the Uzbek authorities deliberately provoke social tensions in Tajikistan by their actions, as well as contribute to the growing dissatisfaction with the local authority among the Tajik population. According to Tashkent, the incident on the railway, which resulted in the cargo delay, was a terrorist attack. Gas supply was stopped because of the need to fulfill their contractual obligations to China, where Uzbekistan redirected gas instead of Tajikistan.

It is hard to say which of the two neighboring countries should be blamed as each of them has their own truth. Historically, the parties in a certain sense are dependent of each other’s position. They fail to allot resources in the region for nearly 20 years. What are the threats of this aggravation?

Some analysts predict a worsening of relations between the two countries up to a military conflict. However, this scenario is unlikely to occur, because the two neighboring countries are incommensurate in their power. Uzbekistan has been competing with Kazakhstan for regional leadership for a long time, and perhaps even now. According to some reports, Tajikistan, on the contrary, is believed to be the poorest country in the region.

However, the aggravation of relations with neighboring Uzbekistan might cause the instability in the region and serious problems in Tajikistan.

Perhaps, a negative outcome of the situation will not keep waiting for a long time.

At present, Tashkent has the opportunity to skillfully manipulate the situation to exert pressure on Dushanbe.

For example, the activity of several major companies, including cement and aluminum plants was complicated due to the suspension of Uzbek gas supplies to the republic.

This can significantly reduce the revenues to the republic’s budget, because the country exports goods of these companies.

via Unresolved issues between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan fraught with serious consequences – Trend.

Dushanbe emerging market for Pakistani products: Jawad | DAWN.COM

ISLAMABAD: CEO Harvest Tradings and Member Export, Islamabad Chamber of Commerce & Industry (ICCI), Ahmad Jawad has observed that Dushanbe is an emerging market for Pakistani products.

Talking to PPI, he said it’s time to look for new destinations of trade on the basis of mutually beneficial business as trade is the only source to bring peace and overcome financial crisis.

Jawad said Tajikistan, which is only few miles away from Pakistani border, is important gateway to other central Asian courtiers. National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) branch in Dushanbe which was opened few days back use as excellent banking channel on both sides for trade. He said Pakistan’s sea ports provide the shortest distance for Tajik trade shipments.

Tajikistan has a lot of scope to boost bilateral trade for the mutual benefit of the people of two countries, during a market survey of Dushanbe, it was found that many Pakistani products like pharmaceutical products, medicines are already exported to this country, he said, adding the profit margin on other products like in fruits and vegetables, sanitary items and other products are 80 to 500 per cent subject to explore this market with proper strategy.

He further said that promotion of ties with Tajikistan would not only benefit Pakistani exporters but also help enhance people to people contact.

via Dushanbe emerging market for Pakistani products: Jawad | DAWN.COM.

Uzbek PM Rejects Tajikistan’s Energy Blockade Accusations | World | RIA Novosti

The Tajik Embassy in Russia issued a statement earlier this week, claiming that Uzbekistan had imposed a transport and energy blockade, which could negatively affect the Tajik economy. Uzbekistan recently decided to halt gas deliveries to Tajikistan and no longer provides transit of electricity from Turkmenistan to Tajikistan.

A statement by the Tajik embassy claims Tashkent’s restrictions on rail transportation and energy shipments to Tajikistan may cause “a humanitarian catastrophe” and are “aimed at destabilizing the socioeconomic environment there.”

In a letter to his Tajik counterpart, Mirziyoev said that the Uztransgas pipeline operator performed its contract-guaranteed supplies of 45 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Tajikistan in full and that the issue of further supplies “should be decided between the commercial entities, according to the general international practice.”

He also said that “as the Turkmen and Uzbek gas transportation systems function separately from each other, the transit of Turkmen gas via Uzbekistan is impossible.”

The premier also dismissed the accusations by the Tajik embassy of a “transport blockade” of the southern and central regions of Tajikistan.

Mirziyoev said the growth of transit costs for Tajikistan-bound rail traffic was “a forced countermeasure,” because “Tajikistan’s rail authorities increased tariffs manyfold in a short period of time”. According to the Uzbek prime minister, tariffs tripled in 2011 and grew by 40 percent in 2012.

Uzbekistan’s increase of tariffs in the reported periods was 30 and 23 percent, respectively, Mirziyoev said.

via Uzbek PM Rejects Tajikistan’s Energy Blockade Accusations | World | RIA Novosti.

Uzbekistan rejects Tajikistan’s accusations | Tajikistan News-NA «Asia-Plus»

DUSHANBE, April 5, 2012, Asia-Plus — Uzbekistan’s government has rejected accusations from neighboring Tajikistan that Tashkent has imposed an economic blockade on Tajikistan in order to strengthen Uzbek advantages over its smaller and more impoverished Central Asian neighbor.

On April 2, the Tajik Embassy in Moscow accused Uzbekistan of trying “to make Dushanbe adopt decisions that are profitable for Tashkent” by cutting badly needed electricity and natural gas supplies and shutting down road and railway connections between the two countries.

Tajik officials have warned that a prolonged cutoff of energy and other links could lead to a humanitarian disaster in Tajikistan, where electricity is already rationed because of shortages.

Responding in a statement on April 4, Uzbek Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyaev did not deny that Tashkent had suspended energy and transport links to Tajikistan, but said technical reasons were responsible.

via Uzbekistan rejects Tajikistan’s accusations | Tajikistan News-NA «Asia-Plus».

Mountain countries seek to unite, air concerns about climate change – CNN.com

Kathmandu, Nepal (CNN) — Mountain countries from around the world are seeking a common voice in global climate change negotiations to draw attention to the vulnerabilities of mountain areas.

As part of this effort, government and nongovernmental representatives from 30 countries — from China to Uganda, Peru to Tajikistan — met in Kathmandu over the past two days to share knowledge and create an alliance.

“In global meetings of countries, whether in Copenhagen, Cancun or Durban, it was only the few countries from Central Asia and Nepal that raised the issue of vulnerabilities of mountains,” said Ilhomjon Rajabov, head of the Climate Change Center of Tajikistan’s Ministry of Environment.

According to David Molden of the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, a Kathmandu-based research and lobby group, mountain areas are responsible for 50% of the world’s fresh water and biodiversity.

He hopes that the alliance of the mountain countries will be as strong and influential as the alliance of island nations in global climate change negotiations.

“Governments like India also ignore mountain areas because only a small population lives in the mountains,” he said. “They are not vote banks.”

via Mountain countries seek to unite, air concerns about climate change – CNN.com.

Rahmon: Tajikistan Does Not Claim Monopoly of Water Resources in Region , 6 April 2012 Friday 16:37

Tajikistan has consistently advocated for the efficient sharing of water resources by all countries in the region of Central Asia, Tajik leader Emomali Rahmon said in an exclusive interview with the influential Al-Masa Egyptian newspaper which is now posted on the official website of the President in the Tajik language, ITAR-TASS reported.

“Tajikistan, where 60 per cent of the water resources are formed does not claim monopoly of them, but stands for co-efficient water use by all countries of the region,” Rahmon emphasised.

He believes “the management of these resources among the upper reaches of Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which have abundant water resources and lower reaches in countries such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan which have rich reserves of oil and natural gas, requires an effective economic mechanism to ensure the long term and mutually beneficial use.”

According to local experts, it’s the “water problem and its potential shortage” that has become one of the main reasons for Tashkent’s tough opposition to erection in Tajikistan of the region’s largest Rogun hydroelectric power station with a design capacity of 3600 MW. However, as preceding statements by Emomali Rahmon and his interview with the Egyptian media show, Tajikistan will not abandon construction of this super energy giant.

“We ask our neighbours to understand the situation in which Tajikistan is lacking large reserves of oil and gas and facing great challenges due to the shortage of electricity and heat in the winter,” says the Tajik leader, pointing out that “the only way is construction of large hydroelectric power stations on our internal rivers.”

Rahmon’s emotional interview comes amid new tensions between the two neighbouring republics. The Tajik side has accused Tashkent of a transport blockade on the southern section of the railway, calling the Uzbek authorities’ explanation on the need for reconstruction of the worn-out ways a “farfetched pretext” and of the refusal of a supply of natural gas from April 1 as well as a simultaneous ban on the transit of Turkmen gas through its territory.

via Rahmon: Tajikistan Does Not Claim Monopoly of Water Resources in Region , 6 April 2012 Friday 16:37.